Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

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Higher education is confronting a significant demographic shift, with long-term trends in fertility and migration steering the population towards the Hispanic Southwest. Consequently, the Northeast and Midwest, once strongholds of higher education, are projected to see a 5 percent decline in college-aged populations by the mid-2020s. Additionally, a steep drop in child-bearing rates following the Great Recession will lead to a nearly 15 percent decrease in college-aged students by 2026. In response, the author has created the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), utilizing data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate college-going probabilities based on demographic factors. The analysis includes demand forecasts by institution type and rank, offering insights for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and others. Grawe emphasizes that future college attendance demand will vary significantly by institution type, with elite schools expected to see over a 15 percent increase, while many others may face severe declines. This work serves as a vital resource for administrators and trustees involved in recruitment, admissions, and strategic planning, helping them navigate the impending enrollment challenges.