Dan Gardner Libros

Discover the secrets to successfully planning and executing ambitious projects of any scale, from home renovations to space exploration, by the leading expert on megaprojects. While inspiring stories like the Empire State Building's rapid completion and Apple's iPod launch showcase triumphs, the reality is that most large visions often turn into costly failures. A staggering 92% of megaprojects exceed budgets or schedules, with California's high-speed rail project ballooning from $33 billion to $100 billion without fulfilling its promises. Even smaller endeavors, such as launching a business or organizing an event, frequently encounter setbacks. Bent Flyvbjerg, an Oxford professor recognized as the foremost authority on megaprojects, delves into the reasons behind these failures and outlines research-based principles for success. Key strategies include understanding your odds, planning slowly but acting swiftly, and starting with your end goal to identify necessary steps. He emphasizes the importance of building from small components, fostering teamwork, and mastering the unknowns that often derail projects. Flyvbjerg also highlights that the greatest risk often lies within ourselves. Through vivid examples—from the Sydney Opera House to Pixar films and a Brooklyn renovation gone wrong—this guide reveals how to achieve any ambitious project on time and within budget.

The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.

Every day we hear about terrorism, war and apocalypse. But the real risk of these events happening to us is about as likely as winning the lottery. Dan Gardner explains our risk perception through our brain's two simultaneous responses to risk - the ancient 'fight or flight' instinct and the rational, considered response.

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example- packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Das erste Buch des Wikipedia-Gründers In einer Zeit, die von Desinformation und einem Vertrauensverlust in Institutionen geprägt ist, steht das Fundament des Vertrauens, das für den Erwerb neuen Wissens unerlässlich ist, auf dem Spiel. Vertrauen ist der Schlüssel zu fairen Wahlen, einer zukunftssicheren Bildung und dem Schutz unseres Klimas. Der renommierte Tech-Visionär Jimmy Wales nimmt uns mit auf eine faszinierende Reise zu den Anfängen von Wikipedia im Jahr 2001. Wales zeigt, wie er mithilfe von sieben Vertrauensregeln eine einzigartige Website geschaffen hat, die auf den Prinzipien von Freiheit, Transparenz und Zugänglichkeit basiert. Diese Website ist inzwischen ein integraler Bestandteil unseres täglichen Lebens und hat den Zugang zu Wissen auf radikale Weise demokratisiert. Anhand der inspirierenden Geschichte von Wikipedia verdeutlicht Jimmy Wales' erstes Buch die entscheidende Bedeutung von Vertrauen und erläutert die Prinzipien, auf denen diese weltweit einzigartige Website basiert . Gleichzeitig zeigt er auf, wie man selbst ein verantwortungsvoller Entscheidungsträger werden kann.