Nassim Nicholas Taleb Orden de los libros (cronológico)

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

За одно только последнее десятилетие человечество пережило ряд тяжелейших катастроф, потрясений и катаклизмов, не укладывающихся в рамки самых фантастических предсказаний. Пятидесятидвухлетний ливанец, выпускник Сорбонны и нью-йоркский финансовый гуру Нассим Талеб называет такие непрогнозируемые события Черными лебедями. Он убежден: именно они дают толчок как истории в целом, так и существованию каждого отдельного человека. И чтобы преуспеть, надо быть к ним готовыми. Сразу после выхода "Черного лебедя" автор блестяще продемонстрировал свою "не-теорию" на практике: на фоне финансового кризиса компания Талеба заработала (а не потеряла!) для инвесторов полмиллиарда долларов. Но его труд - не учебник по экономике. Это размышления очень незаурядного человека о жизни и о том, как найти в ней свое место. В написанном им позже эссе-постскриптуме "О секретах устойчивости" Талеб дает остроумный отпор тем экономистам-ортодоксам, которые приняли созданное им анти-учение в штыки. Вошедшее в книгу собрание афоризмов Нассима Талеба "Прокрустово ложе" - это блестящая квинтэссенция его оригинальных идей.

Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.

Este es uno de los libros más inteligentes y divertidos que se hayan escrito nunca. Parodia del divertissement dieciochesco, juega con la paradoja y el absurdo para construir una auténtica metodología del ridículo. En la primera de las dos partes de que consta el libro, Cipolla razona con una argumentación paródica de los estudios de historia económica más sesudos y utiliza, con aparente seriedad, fórmulas cliométricas deliciosamente absurdas para llegar a las más estrafalarias relaciones de causa a efecto. En la segunda parte se usa un modelo matemático parecido a los de la sociología para enunciar las «Leyes fundamentales de la estupidez humana», que demuestran cuán abundante es el número de estúpidos que nos rodean y cuán grande es su poder. Sólo que al terminar de leer este libro breve, divertido y explosivo nos asalta una duda: lo que hemos leído ¿era sólo una inocente parodia o hay que tomarlo como una advertencia acerca de la deshumanización y vaciedad de mucho de lo que se enseña en nuestras universidades e instituciones académicas?

О чем книга О самых невероятных, оригинальных научно-фантастических идеях, которые в будущем, возможно, станут реальностью. О том, как самые разные ученые, оказывается, способны поверить в любые гипотезы и поведать всем нам о своих идеях, связанных с новыми областями эволюционной биологии, генетики, компьютерных наук, нейрофизиологии, психологии и физики... Почему книга достойна прочтения Лучшие умы XXI века предлагают необычное видение возможностей науки и технического прогресса. Книга отвечает на самые разные вопросы, - начиная с того, что же такое сознание человека, и кончая тем, одиноки ли мы во Вселенной, - интересующие не только мировое научное сообщество, но и каждого из нас. Ведь все мы, так или иначе, задаемся вопросами мироздания. Уникальная возможность познакомиться с тем, каким образом ученые сегодня находят путь к истине. Для кого эта книга Для всех, кто чувствует ритм нашего времени - времени научно-технического бума, и кому интересно узнать, во что можно и нужно верить, даже если это пока еще не доказано.

Die "Incerto-Reihe" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb, die die Werke "Der Schwarze Schwan", "Narren des Zufalls", "Antifragilität" und das "Kleine Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen" umfasst, untersucht die Rolle von Glück, Unsicherheit und Risiko in einer komplexen Welt. Daniel Kahneman beschreibt Talebs Einfluss auf seine Weltsicht.

Traces the author's experiences as a mathematics wizard, author, inventor, hedge-fund manager, and card-counter who revealed casino-beating strategies, invented the first wearable computer, and launched a Wall Street revolution

Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer- too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In this provocative book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't.

New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost philosophers of our time, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a book on how some systems actually benefit from disorder. In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem; in Antifragile he offers a definitive solution: how to gain from disorder and chaos while being protected from fragilities and adverse events. For what he calls the "antifragile" is one step beyond robust, as it benefits from adversity, uncertainty and stressors, just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension. Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, and proposing that things be built in an antifragile manner. Extremely ambitious and multidisciplinary, Antifragile provides a blueprint for how to behave-and thrive-in a world we don't understand and which is too uncertain for us to even try to understand. He who is not antifragile will perish. Why is the city state better than the nation state, why is debt bad for you, and why is almost everything modern bound to fail? The book covers innovation, health, biology, medicine, life decisions, politics, foreign policy, urban planning, war, personal finance, and economic systems. Throughout, the voice and recipes of the ancient wisdom from Phoenician, Roman, Greek, and Medieval sources are heard loud and clear.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery

A black swan is an improbable event characterized by unpredictability, massive impact, and a retrospective explanation that makes it seem predictable. Events like the success of Google and 9/11 exemplify this concept. Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that black swans influence nearly every aspect of our world, from the emergence of religions to personal life events. We often fail to recognize black swans until after they occur because humans are wired to focus on specifics rather than generalities. This tendency leads us to overlook what we don’t know, making it difficult to accurately assess opportunities. Our inclination to simplify and categorize information blinds us to the extraordinary possibilities that lie beyond our current understanding. Taleb has extensively researched how we deceive ourselves into believing we possess more knowledge than we do, often fixating on the trivial while significant events catch us off guard. In this insightful work, he reveals what we know about our ignorance and offers practical strategies for navigating black swans to our advantage. With wit and engaging anecdotes, Taleb draws from diverse fields like cognitive science, business, and probability theory, making this book a transformative read that will alter your perception of the world.

This is a book about luck. More specifically, it is a book about how we perceive luck, twist it around and regard it as intention or purpose.

Dynamic Hedging is an essential guide to managing derivatives risk, offering a practical approach for portfolios with nonlinear securities. It presents insights from the perspective of option market makers and arbitrage operators. Authored by an experienced trader with theoretical expertise, it adapts option theory to real-world scenarios, addressing the limitations of traditional mathematical models in capturing market exposure. Nassim Taleb explores both on-model and off-model derivatives risks, discussing critical concepts in accessible language. Key topics include the generalized option, which covers all convex payoff instruments, and trading techniques for exotic options like binary, barrier, multi-asset, and Asian options, while considering the complexities of actual distributions. The book examines market dynamics from a practitioner's viewpoint, addressing liquidity issues, portfolio insurance, volatility surfaces, and the shortcomings of value at risk methods. It introduces new risk detection tools, including higher moment analysis and nonparametric techniques, while emphasizing the path dependence of dynamically hedged options. Filled with practical tools, market anecdotes, and concise risk management rules, it also presents fundamental derivatives mathematics in intuitive terms, making it a valuable resource for practitioners.