Nassim Nicholas Taleb Orden de los libros (cronológico)

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Zbiór przezabawnych i niezwykle trafnych aforyzmów autora bestsellera Czarny łabędź, w którym autor w zaskakujący sposób demaskuje nasze społeczne iluzje. Tytuł książki wywodzi się z mitologii greckiej – okrutny zbój Prokrust „udoskonalał” swoich gości na specjalnym posłaniu, rozciągając ich lub przycinając im kończyny. Ta metafora znakomicie oddaje stosunek Nassima Taleba do aroganckich skutków ubocznych współczesnej cywilizacji – podporządkowywania ludzi technologii, obarczania rzeczywistości winą za niedopasowywanie się do modeli ekonomicznych, wynajdywania przez koncerny farmaceutyczne chorób w celu sprzedaży leków, sprowadzania inteligencji do czegoś, co można przetestować prostym formularzem, i wpajania społeczeństwom, że stałe zatrudnienie nie jest formą niewolnictwa. Posługując się wyjątkowym połączeniem ciętego dowcipu i przekonującej mądrości, Taleb rozwiewa, jedną po drugiej, nasze iluzje, kontrastując klasyczne wartości, takie jak odwaga, elegancja i erudycja, z największymi dolegliwościami współczesności, jak twardogłowie, kołtuneria i pretensjonalność. „Krystaliczne samorodki myśli Taleba przypominają autonomiczne, ezoteryczne wiersze”. „Financial Times”

Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.

Este es uno de los libros más inteligentes y divertidos que se hayan escrito nunca. Parodia del divertissement dieciochesco, juega con la paradoja y el absurdo para construir una auténtica metodología del ridículo. En la primera de las dos partes de que consta el libro, Cipolla razona con una argumentación paródica de los estudios de historia económica más sesudos y utiliza, con aparente seriedad, fórmulas cliométricas deliciosamente absurdas para llegar a las más estrafalarias relaciones de causa a efecto. En la segunda parte se usa un modelo matemático parecido a los de la sociología para enunciar las «Leyes fundamentales de la estupidez humana», que demuestran cuán abundante es el número de estúpidos que nos rodean y cuán grande es su poder. Sólo que al terminar de leer este libro breve, divertido y explosivo nos asalta una duda: lo que hemos leído ¿era sólo una inocente parodia o hay que tomarlo como una advertencia acerca de la deshumanización y vaciedad de mucho de lo que se enseña en nuestras universidades e instituciones académicas?

О чем книга О самых невероятных, оригинальных научно-фантастических идеях, которые в будущем, возможно, станут реальностью. О том, как самые разные ученые, оказывается, способны поверить в любые гипотезы и поведать всем нам о своих идеях, связанных с новыми областями эволюционной биологии, генетики, компьютерных наук, нейрофизиологии, психологии и физики... Почему книга достойна прочтения Лучшие умы XXI века предлагают необычное видение возможностей науки и технического прогресса. Книга отвечает на самые разные вопросы, - начиная с того, что же такое сознание человека, и кончая тем, одиноки ли мы во Вселенной, - интересующие не только мировое научное сообщество, но и каждого из нас. Ведь все мы, так или иначе, задаемся вопросами мироздания. Уникальная возможность познакомиться с тем, каким образом ученые сегодня находят путь к истине. Для кого эта книга Для всех, кто чувствует ритм нашего времени - времени научно-технического бума, и кому интересно узнать, во что можно и нужно верить, даже если это пока еще не доказано.

Die "Incerto-Reihe" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb, die die Werke "Der Schwarze Schwan", "Narren des Zufalls", "Antifragilität" und das "Kleine Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen" umfasst, untersucht die Rolle von Glück, Unsicherheit und Risiko in einer komplexen Welt. Daniel Kahneman beschreibt Talebs Einfluss auf seine Weltsicht.

Traces the author's experiences as a mathematics wizard, author, inventor, hedge-fund manager, and card-counter who revealed casino-beating strategies, invented the first wearable computer, and launched a Wall Street revolution

How can a stubborn minority easily end up ruling? Should you take advice from a salesperson? Is the pope atheist? More than the foundation of risk management, skin in the game is an astonishingly complex worldview that, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows in this provocative book, applies to all aspects of our lives and drives history. In his inimitable style, he draws on everything from Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump to Seneca to the ethics of disagreement to how to buy a used car, to create a jaw-dropping tapestry for understanding this idea in a brand new way. Full of philosophical tales and practical stories, Skin in the Game offers a key rule to live by: do not do to others what you don't want them to do to you, with its practical extension: never take advice from someone who gives advice for a living

New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. In this title, the author shows that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Taleb tells us how to live in a world that is unpredictable and chaotic, and how to thrive during moments of disaster.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery

A black swan is an improbable event characterized by unpredictability, massive impact, and a retrospective explanation that makes it seem predictable. Events like the success of Google and 9/11 exemplify this concept. Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that black swans influence nearly every aspect of our world, from the emergence of religions to personal life events. We often fail to recognize black swans until after they occur because humans are wired to focus on specifics rather than generalities. This tendency leads us to overlook what we don’t know, making it difficult to accurately assess opportunities. Our inclination to simplify and categorize information blinds us to the extraordinary possibilities that lie beyond our current understanding. Taleb has extensively researched how we deceive ourselves into believing we possess more knowledge than we do, often fixating on the trivial while significant events catch us off guard. In this insightful work, he reveals what we know about our ignorance and offers practical strategies for navigating black swans to our advantage. With wit and engaging anecdotes, Taleb draws from diverse fields like cognitive science, business, and probability theory, making this book a transformative read that will alter your perception of the world.

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? This book aims to change the way you think about business and the world. It also seeks to shatter the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness.

Dynamic Hedging is an essential guide to managing derivatives risk, offering a practical approach for portfolios with nonlinear securities. It presents insights from the perspective of option market makers and arbitrage operators. Authored by an experienced trader with theoretical expertise, it adapts option theory to real-world scenarios, addressing the limitations of traditional mathematical models in capturing market exposure. Nassim Taleb explores both on-model and off-model derivatives risks, discussing critical concepts in accessible language. Key topics include the generalized option, which covers all convex payoff instruments, and trading techniques for exotic options like binary, barrier, multi-asset, and Asian options, while considering the complexities of actual distributions. The book examines market dynamics from a practitioner's viewpoint, addressing liquidity issues, portfolio insurance, volatility surfaces, and the shortcomings of value at risk methods. It introduces new risk detection tools, including higher moment analysis and nonparametric techniques, while emphasizing the path dependence of dynamically hedged options. Filled with practical tools, market anecdotes, and concise risk management rules, it also presents fundamental derivatives mathematics in intuitive terms, making it a valuable resource for practitioners.