Between Russia and China

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The transition paths and outcomes of Russia and China are well-documented, as are the varying approaches taken by the Central Asian republics despite similar starting points. Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan implemented rapid reforms akin to Russia's, while Uzbekistan adopted a more gradual approach reminiscent of China's, and Turkmenistan largely remained unreformed. Nonetheless, the outcomes in these republics tend to align more closely with the Russian experience. Uzbekistan's transition was positively influenced by its relatively modest decline in economic and social indicators, but Kazakhstan has recently surpassed Uzbekistan in maintaining pre-transition output levels. The developments in these Central Asian nations more consistently mirror the Russian model rather than the Chinese one. The differing experiences, particularly between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, can be linked to varying institutional developments critical for transitioning to a market economy. Uzbekistan managed to avoid the high levels of disorder seen in Kazakhstan and Russia following the collapse of their political systems. This stability may be due to a stronger state and fewer rent-seeking opportunities in resource extraction. However, Uzbekistan's less aggressive reform efforts limited the necessary resource reallocation for a successful market transition.