Mathematics scares and depresses most of us, but politicians, journalists and everyone in power use numbers all the time to bamboozle us. Most of it is commonsense, and by using a few really simple principles one can quickly see when maths, statistics and numbers are being abused to play tricks which can waste millions of pounds.
Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. What we do, or don't do, has as much do with gut instinct as hard facts, with enjoyment as understanding. If you've ever wondered what the statistics in tabloid scare stories really mean, how dangerous horse-riding is compared to class-A drugs, or what governs coincidence, you will find it all here.From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.
The Only Boy in the World is a memoir, an investigation into what makes us human, a study of aberration, and a love story. It's about all the odd ways journalist Michael Blastland's autistic son, Joe, has of seeing the world and understanding others, and what that tells the rest of us about how we also tick. Through the strange stories of Joe's scrapes and confusions, he makes luminous the routine skills by which the rest of us mostly avoid the disasters that befall him. The book strives to this understanding by combining Technicolor scenes from Joe's bizarre life, from the long catalog of his social accidents, with scientific and psychological understanding of how we normally relate to other people. Illuminating the emotional core of the book are the ways that Joe and his father relate through all the turbulence to one other.
A revolutionary new book revealing why we should doubt experts - and question ourselves
An original and witty guide to the world of smart-thinking that uses pictures to show where it goes right and wrong, by the creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less.
Manchmal kann man es nur falsch machen: Wer sich zu starker Sonnenstrahlung aussetzt, erhöht das Hautkrebsrisiko. Wer sich aber zu gewissenhaft vor UV-Strahlen schützt, leidet bald unter Vitamin-D-Mangel und dessen Folgeerkrankungen. Unsere Persönlichkeit, individuelle Disposition und unser Verhalten haben viel größeren Einfluss auf unser jeweiliges Lebensrisiko, als Statistiken es erfassen können. Und genau diesen „menschlichen Faktor“ beziehen Michael Blastland und David Spiegelhalter in ihre Analyse der Gefahren, die das ganze Leben über auf uns Menschen lauern, ein. So erzählen sie anschauliche Geschichten über die verschiedenen Seiten der Gefahr und ermutigen den Leser, lieber sich selbst als Statistiken zu vertrauen.