Armenia and the European Union: movement or stagnation?

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Is a membership for Armenia in the European Union conceivable? This exploration delves into potential scenarios for EU accession, including timelines and initial steps like the ENP. It assesses legal criteria for membership, questioning whether Armenia qualifies as a "European state" based on Copenhagen criteria and examining the application process, including the Council's stance and Commission opinions. The discussion also presents arguments against EU membership, addressing economic and political implications, the complexities of Turkey's potential EU accession, and Armenia's relationship with Russia. Alternatives to EU membership are considered, leading to conclusions and recommendations. The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is outlined, focusing on Armenia's foreign policy challenges, particularly regarding Nagorno-Karabakh and regional security dynamics. The influence of Russia as a dominant force in the CIS and its perceptions of Armenia are analyzed, alongside the country's dependency on Russian support. The process of EU rapprochement is evaluated, highlighting the shared interests of the EU and Russia in the region. The text further examines ethnic conflicts, the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse, and the broader geopolitical implications for major powers, including U.S. policy in the Caucasus and Caspian region, alongside internal ethno-political violence and its consequences.