Elites, coercion and collective goods

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This study explores the stark differences in violent conflict in post-independence East Africa, particularly between Uganda and Tanzania. Despite their similarities in geography, ethnic makeup, income levels, and colonial history at independence, Uganda faced severe violence resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, while Tanzania is often seen as a stable, peaceful nation. The authors critique existing explanations that emphasize democracy levels and identity-based inequalities as insufficient for understanding this variation. By applying the Collier/Hoeffler model and economic theory, they propose a modified rational-choice framework that highlights individual motivations for violence. The central argument is that peace in East Africa emerged when a small group of individuals, sharing a common ethnic, racial, or religious identity, overcame collective action challenges to establish dominance. In a productive economy, this dominance incentivized them to prioritize long-term gains over immediate exploitation, fostering peace and providing collective goods. The study also outlines potential future political scenarios for Tanzania, Uganda, and Zanzibar, along with implications for policy. Finally, it situates the research within broader scientific and policy discussions.