Social Unrest

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This report develops a framework for understanding social unrest within the context of systemic risk. It aims to identify triggers (events leading to unrest) and drivers (causal roots) that contribute to its emergence. The analysis seeks to inform policy options to avoid, mitigate, or manage unrest. The framework enhances comprehension of the circumstances that may provoke social unrest, the intensity it may reach, and the interventions that could de-escalate or prevent it. Recognizing that social unrest is an escalating process rather than a fixed state, it is conceptualized through a step-by-step escalation scheme, detailing how unrest can intensify over time. To identify relevant drivers, three case studies are examined: pandemics, cyber-related risks, and financial crises, focusing on how these events have historically caused or could lead to unrest. An analytic model captures the combined effects derived from these case studies. Subsequently, the IRGC risk governance model is applied to explain and predict the consequences of social unrest. Finally, the report develops guidelines for normative governance concerning social unrest, aiming to provide actionable insights for policymakers.