Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

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Focusing on cognitive theories, this work explores risk-seeking behavior through the lens of Turkey's foreign policy towards Syria. It investigates why policymakers pursue unattainable policies, proposing an alternative model that emphasizes overconfidence as a driver of risk-taking, contrasting with traditional prospect theory. The author formulates testable hypotheses to empirically analyze the motivations behind Turkish decision makers' bold actions during the Syrian uprising and the resulting implications of their choices.