Cohort Change Ratios and their Applications

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This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method, offering straightforward and effective ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts with minimal resource requirements. The concepts and tools presented are accessible to those without extensive backgrounds in demographics, mathematics, or statistics. Emphasizing population characteristics, particularly age and sex composition, the methods can also be applied to other demographic attributes and total population estimates. It includes traditional applications like the Hamilton-Perry method alongside innovative uses of the CCR, such as stable population theory. Each application is illustrated with real-world empirical examples, and accompanying Excel files with data and program code are available online. Key topics include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating populations (both current and historical), modifications to existing methods, forecasting school enrollment, estimating life expectancy, and analyzing the CCR's migration and mortality components. This textbook serves as a resource for advanced undergraduate or graduate courses on demographic methods and can also supplement courses in applied demography, business and economic forecasting, and market research.