Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and co-author of Nudge comes a groundbreaking exploration of why people often make poor judgments and how to mitigate the impact of noise. Consider the scenarios where two doctors provide differing diagnoses for the same patient, or judges issue varying sentences for identical crimes. Different food inspectors might rate indistinguishable restaurants differently, and customer complaint resolutions can vary based on who is handling them. Noise manifests as variability in judgments that should be consistent, influenced even by the time of day or day of the week. In this work, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony reveal how noise leads to significant errors across various fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, and more. Despite its prevalence, individuals and organizations often overlook the influence of chance on their decisions. Drawing on recent findings in psychology and behavioral economics, this insightful research explains our susceptibility to noise in judgment and offers strategies for addressing it effectively.