Thinking in Bets

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Poker champion and business consultant Annie Duke teaches how to embrace uncertainty and improve decision-making. A pivotal example is Seahawks coach Pete Carroll's controversial call during Super Bowl XLIX, where a pass led to an interception and a loss. Critics labeled it a poor decision, but Duke prompts us to consider whether it was a bad call or simply a case of bad luck. She emphasizes that even the best decisions don't guarantee favorable outcomes due to uncontrollable luck and hidden information. The key to long-term success lies in thinking in bets: assessing confidence levels, potential outcomes, and the odds of success. Duke encourages readers to reflect on whether they fell into the unlucky 10% of a strategy that usually works or if their success was mere luck. Drawing from diverse fields like business, sports, and poker, she provides tools to navigate uncertainty and enhance decision-making. In a world that prizes certainty, many struggle to admit uncertainty. However, professional poker players accept that great decisions can lead to unexpected results. By shifting focus from seeking certainty to accurately evaluating knowledge, individuals can reduce emotional reactivity and biases, ultimately becoming more confident, calm, and successful over time.