End Times

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From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, a groundbreaking interdisciplinary science of history, comes a compelling explanation for America's civil strife and its potential resolutions. Peter Turchin, a notable social scientist, has spent over twenty-five years integrating insights from various fields into historical study. His latest work synthesizes his research on the factors that unify or divide political communities, particularly in light of the current turmoil in the United States. In 2010, Turchin, alongside other scientists, forecasted a decade of social disintegration leading to political breakdown around 2020. As his predictions increasingly materialized, interest in his work surged. This book encapsulates his framework and findings, presenting a broad historical context for the American narrative. Turchin emphasizes that political instability arises when the balance between ruling elites and the majority shifts too far in favor of elites. Historically, rising economic inequality has stemmed from various factors, including population growth and, more recently, laissez-faire policies and globalization. This "wealth pump" exacerbates the impoverishment of the majority while enriching elites, leading to fierce competition among them. As the number of elite aspirants grows, so does the potential for populist uprisings, signaling the decline of the established order. In the U.S., this wealth pump has been in overdri