Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace

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This book challenges the prevailing notion that cyberspace is inherently dangerous and prone to escalation. Instead, it presents evidence that cyber actions and responses typically exhibit a proportionate, tit-for-tat dynamic. The authors propose a theoretical framework rooted in security studies concepts, extending their application to cyberspace to explain the general absence of cyber escalation. They highlight characteristics of cyber operations that mitigate escalation pathways and reduce the likelihood of intensified strategic interactions between rival states. The theory further explores conditions under which cyber operations might aid in de-escalating crises and outlines scenarios where escalation, despite being unlikely, could still occur. This comprehensive perspective addresses the nature of cyber escalation across competition, crisis, and conflict, shifting the focus from binary debates about escalation likelihood to identifying conditions that influence escalation or de-escalation. The authors analyze cyber behavior in various crises and strategic rivalries, particularly involving the United States and its adversaries. The implications of whether cyberspace is escalatory extend beyond academic discourse, affecting state strategies and risk assessments. The book concludes with actionable policy recommendations, emphasizing their relevance to U.S. cyber strategy and operations.