Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

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Poker champion and business consultant Annie Duke teaches how to embrace uncertainty and enhance decision-making. A pivotal moment in this exploration is Seahawks coach Pete Carroll's controversial call during Super Bowl XLIX, where a pass led to an interception and loss. Critics labeled it a poor decision, but Duke prompts us to reconsider: was it truly a bad call, or just an unfortunate outcome? Even sound decisions can yield unexpected results due to luck and hidden information. To achieve long-term success, one must think in bets—assessing certainty, potential outcomes, and the odds of success. This approach helps differentiate between luck and skill in decision-making. Drawing from experiences in business, sports, and poker, Duke provides practical tools for navigating uncertainty. Many struggle to admit uncertainty in a world that prizes confidence, yet professional poker players recognize that good decisions don't always guarantee favorable outcomes. By shifting focus from the need for certainty to evaluating what you know and what you don't, you can mitigate emotional reactions, biases, and detrimental habits. This mindset fosters greater confidence, calmness, compassion, and ultimately, success.