Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious over Time? Intervention Timing and Its Implications for Force Planning

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Challenging the notion of serial independence in U.S. military interventions, this report argues for the recognition of temporally dependent clusters, where the likelihood of future interventions is influenced by recent actions. By integrating this concept into Department of Defense planning processes, it aims to enhance the accuracy of force estimates, providing a more nuanced understanding of military engagement dynamics.