Chancing It

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"We're all familiar with the workings of chance in our lives, from lucky breaks and bad bets to strange coincidences. They can make us jump for joy or leave us feeling persecuted - or just plain spooked. Yet behind all the apparent randomness lie hard and fast laws, and understanding how they work can transform our attitude to the ups and downs of life. But as this groundbreaking book reveals, these same laws can do far more, giving us powerful tools for dealing with uncertainty and risk to our wealth, health and happiness. Using compelling real-life cases Robert Matthews demonstrates the astounding power and reach of the laws of chance. He shows how their insights often defy common-sense, overturning many widely-held beliefs. Drawing on his own academic research, he also reveals how to spot basic flaws in the claims of experts in field ranging from science and medicine to finance. By the end of the book, readers will have a whole new view of how chance affects their lives, and have learned a host of practical tools - along with the secrets of: - When it makes sense to bet, and the surprising truth about 'Bets that can't lose'; - Creating safer investment portfolios; - Deciding when insurance is worth having, and when it's just a rip-off; - How to tell when 'expert' claims about health and nutrition are based on flaky evidence; - Deciding whether a scientific 'breakthrough' is worth taking seriously; The chances are this will be one of the most valuable books you've ever read."--Publisher's description